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Recentele tranzactii de vanzare din pietele titlurilor de stat americane au adus randamentele la maturitate la maximele din 2007-2008. Aceasta evolutie provoaca scenariul potrivit caruia politica monetara a Rezervei Federale Americane (Fed) este indeajuns de restrict...

Bond Traders Regaining Faith That Fed Can Slay Inflation Dragon

A key gauge of investors’ inflation expectations, known as the five-year, five-year forward breakeven rate, on Thursday fell to 2.02%, just beneath where it stood on Feb. 18 and the lowest closing level since early 2021. And while it rose Friday, the rate is well below the 2.57% mark hit back in April and much closer to the rate of 2% that the US central bank tries to anchor policy around. Government debt prices (US.CBU0) rallied sharply on Friday while Wall Street stocks dropped after disappointing business surveys on both sides of the Atlantic intensified investor fears about the global economic outlook. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note fell 0.14 percentage points to 2.77 per cent after a closely watched survey signalled a contraction in business activity in July. Yields fall when prices rise.

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Treasury yields ease lower ahead of inflation data later this week


U.S. Treasury yields were slightly lower Monday as traders continued to digest strong numbers in the latest jobs report and looked ahead to inflation figures due out later this week. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury slipped about a basis point to about 3.0878%, while the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond was also down a basis point at 3.2539%.&nbsp

Yields move inversely to prices, and a basis point is equal to 0.01%. Investors are looking ahead to key inflation data this week. The June consumer price index will be released Wednesday and is expected to show headline inflation, including food and energy, rising above May’s 8.6% level. Also on the data front, the June producer price index is due out Thursday and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment report for July will be released Friday.&nbsp

There are no major data releases out Monday. On Friday, investors absorbed the June employment report that showed jobs growing at a faster clip than expected. Nonfarm payrolls increased 372,000 last month, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Economists predicted the U.S. economy would add 250,000 jobs, according to the Dow Jones. Yields jumped Friday after the release with the report likely to keep the U.S. Federal Reserve more aggressive with its rate hiking path.

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Stocks stage big comeback Tuesday with S&P 500 finishing slightly higher after erasing 2% loss


Concerns about economic growth are hanging over investors as the U.S. market looks to recover after a rough first half to the year. The market has dropped in four of the past five weeks, and the S&amp P 500 is more than 20% below its record high. Some economists believe U.S. GDP declined for both quarters to start the year, which is a shorthand used by many to signal a recession.&nbsp

The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield and the 2-year yield inverted on Tuesday, a move that has a strong historical track record as a recession indicator. When short-term Treasury yields trade above long-term yields, it could be a sign that investors expect an economic slowdown to lead to rate cuts. Stocks tied to economic growth fell sharply on Tuesday, with machinery names Deere and Caterpillar falling 3.2% and 2.5%, respectively, and hitting their lowest levels of the year. Mining stock Freeport-McMoRan dropped 6.6%.


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US government bonds rally after factory data heighten recession fears


The yield on the 10-year Treasury note, a benchmark for global government bond markets as well as consumer loans and mortgages, dropped 0.13 percentage points to 2.88 per cent in thin trading before a holiday weekend in the US. The yield has fallen nearly 0.3 percentage points over the past three days in the biggest such moves since 2020. In equities, US stocks ended the day higher, with the benchmark S&amp P 500 (DE.SXR8) index up 1.1 per cent following its worst performance for the first half of a year since 1970. The tech-heavy Nasdaq rose 0.9 per cent.

The declining expectations for rate rises and worsening economic outlook have pushed US bond yields from recent highs. The two-year yield — which moves with interest rate expectations — has fallen about 0.6 percentage points from a mid-June high of nearly 3.5 per cent.

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Bonds Move to Price In a Half-Point Cut After Fed Reaches Peak


&nbsp &nbsp Yields on Treasury notes and bonds were lower by around 5-to-8 basis points across the curve late in New York, with the five-year nominal rate leading the way and dropping as low as 3.15%. The so-called breakeven rate on five-year Treasury inflation-protected securities, a measure that’s seen as a proxy for consumer-price index expectations, dropped as much as 14 basis points to 2.61%.&nbsp

&nbsp Fed Chair Jerome Powell reiterated on Wednesday that the central bank is raising rates “expeditiously” and aims to move “into restrictive territory fairly quickly,” a level where borrowing costs restrain rather than spur economic growth. Powell also expressed faith the economy would avoid recession and warned that failing to address high inflation and allowing it to become persistent, would be a more painful outcome for the economy.&nbsp

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Treasury yields edge lower as investors await key jobs and inflation data (US.CBU0)


The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note fell 1 basis point to 3.0141%, while the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond also slipped about 1 basis point to 3.1638%. Yields move inversely to prices, and a basis point is equal to 0.01%. Markets are also looking ahead to May’s consumer price index reading on Friday, with the print likely to be influential in the scale and speed of the Fed’s monetary tightening path. The White House has acknowledged that it expects an uptick in inflation on Friday.


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Hedge Funds Bet Against 10-Year Treasuries as Yields Approach 3%

Hedge funds are signaling it may be third time’s a charm as to whether US 10-year yields will climb above 3% to stay. Leveraged funds become net short on the securities (US.CBU0) at the end of May, according to the latest data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. That’s the first time they have been bearish since January 2021. The 3% level is proving a tough psychological barrier for 10-year notes to breach. Benchmark yields climbed above that threshold in early May, and again on May 18 before falling back. They moved toward it once again last week following robust Friday’s US payrolls data and were at 2.94% on Monday. Swaps traders are fully pricing in 50 basis-point rate hikes at both the Fed’s June and July meetings, but are only anticipating 40 basis points of additional tightening in September. That outlook underscores concern the central bank may have to risk an economic slowdown to get inflation under control. Similar fears helped spur a Treasury rally that saw 10-year yields tumble as much as 50 basis points from this year’s high of 3.20% set on May 9.

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Vor fi cele mai mari dobanzi din istoria celor 8 editii Fidelis. Prin TradeVille, poti subscrie usor, rapid si fara comision in noua oferta de titluri de stat de la Bursa de Valori Bucuresti. Plus: cum se cumpara titluri de stat (US.CBU0)... in America, cand vedem prototipul robotului Optimus produs de Tesla (US.TSLA) si cate masini a livrat Nio (US.NIO) luna trecuta.

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Bets Against U.S. Treasurys Rake In Gains as Fed Raises Rates (US.CBU0)


With Treasury yields soaring this year, the price of government bonds has plunged. For traditional debt investors, that is a nightmare. For Mr. Backes, a 31-year-old recruiter from Maryland, it is a gold mine—for now, anyway. ProShares and others offer ETFs that let rookies and professionals alike wager against U.S. debt in exchange for a management fee. Through Friday, a ProShares ETF whose value tracks the opposite of daily price moves in long-dated Treasury debt has gained 22% in 2022.&nbsp

The ETF follows government bonds that will mature in 20 years or more. That performance compares with a 12% loss, after dividends, in the S&amp P 500, and a slimmer loss for the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate bond index. The ProShares ETF that Mr. Backes chose—a riskier one, because it uses leverage—has gained 46% in the year to date. The Clark Group Asset Management, based in Dana Point, Calif., started buying the ProShares Short 20+ Year Treasury ETF in March 2021. The ETF now makes up about 20% of Clark Group’s fixed-income portfolios. Owning the ETF has helped Clark Group eke out a positive return from fixed income in the year to date, Chief Executive Raymond Clark said.


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Pimco’s Dan Ivascyn says bonds becoming a bargain after sell-off (US.CBU0)


“There’s a pretty good chance in this environment that you see some overshooting, which means to be careful buying now, but get ready for what could be an even more attractive opportunity for those that are a bit more patient” . Higher-quality, “investment-grade” bonds have been selling off this year after the Federal Reserve signalled it would shrink its balance sheet and raise interest rates. Lower-quality, “high-yield” bonds had proved more resilient until this month, when this riskier corner of the debt market began to crack.


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Bonds Suddenly Look Like a Smart Hedge Again After 12% Loss (US.CBU0)


“We just started buying Treasuries,” said Mark Holman, a partner at TwentyFour Asset Management, a London-based investment firm that specializes in fixed-income securities. “I’m quite pleased that Treasury yields have gone up so much, because I know we are going to need them because we are late cycle.”


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BofA Strategists Say Investor Exodus Signals ‘True Capitulation’

Money is leaving every asset class and the exodus is deepening as investors rush out of names like Apple Inc. (US.AAPL), according to Bank of America Corp. strategists. Equities (DE.SXR8), bonds (US.CBU0), cash and gold (DE.G2X) all saw outflows in the week ended May 11, strategists led by Michael Hartnett wrote in a note, citing EPFR Global data. At $1.1 billion, technology stocks (DE.QDVE) suffered their biggest withdrawals so far this year, second only to financials (DE.ZPDF), which lost $2.6 billion. “The definition of true capitulation is investors selling what they love,” Hartnett said, citing Apple, big tech, the dollar and private equity. The meltdown in cryptocurrencies (BITO) and speculative tech now rivals the internet bubble crash and the global financial crisis, he said.

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Bond Slide Intensifies, Rattling Other Markets (US.CBU0)


On Thursday, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note settled at 3.066%, its highest close since November 2018, up from 2.914% Wednesday. The yield on the 30-year bond climbed even further, logging its biggest one-day increase in more than two years to close at 3.159%. That forecast, though, masks a range of views—with many investors still hopeful that inflation could slow down enough to keep short-term rates under 3% while others think they may have to top 5%.


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Stock Futures Fall as Bond Yields Edge Higher (US.CBU0)


U.S. government bonds sold off again, pushing the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note to 3.173% on Monday from 3.124% on Friday. That put it on course to settle at another fresh multiyear high. The 10-year yield has risen 1.6 percentage points since the end of 2021, leading some investors to reassess the valuations of technology and growth stocks. Bond yields rise when prices fall.


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Treasury Yields Fall After Powell Downplays Chance of 0.75 Percentage Point Rate Increase (US.CBU0)


Rising rate expectations have led to a brutal few months for bond investors, dragging down the prices of Treasurys, corporate bonds and municipal debt while lifting the 10-year Treasury yield from 1.496% at the end of last year. The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate bond index—largely U.S.&nbsp

Treasurys, highly rated corporate bonds and mortgage-backed securities—has returned minus 9.9% this year as of May 3. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note settled Wednesday at 2.914%, according to Tradeweb, compared with 2.957% Tuesday. The yield has climbed above 3% a few times this week without settling there. It last closed above 3% in November 2018. The two-year yield, seen as particularly sensitive to the near-term interest-rate outlook, fell to 2.614% from 2.768% Tuesday.


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Bond bull market ‘has come to an end’, Guggenheim’s Minerd says

The comments follow an intense sell-off in the $23tn US Treasury market, the backbone of the global financial system, sparked by hawkish rhetoric from Fed officials. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note this week hit 3 per cent for the first time since 2018, having more than doubled since the end of 2021. (US.CBU0)

Tighter policy from the Fed could “induce a financial accident” and he pointed to a sell-off in the $46tn US stock market as a “likely place” for that to occur. “We have never brought inflation down by more than 2.5 per cent without inducing a recession,” he said.


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Fed Traders Seek an Answer to the 75-Basis-Point Question

The U.S. central bank is expected to raise rates by 50 basis points at this meeting, something it hasn’t done since May 2000. Traders will be watching closely to see if the Fed boss green-lights -- or at the very least opts not to red-light -- the idea of a three-quarter point hike, something the central bank hasn’t implemented since the annus horribilis for Treasuries that was 1994.

U.S. 10-year Treasury yields climbed above 3% this week for the first time since 2018, while expectations for aggressive global policy tightening helped drive global bonds in April to their steepest monthly loss on record. The yields on two-year notes, which are more sensitive to rate expectations, rose as much as three basis points to 2.81% on Wednesday, before paring some gains. (US.CBU0)


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10-year Treasury yield holds at 3%; benchmark German bund yield hits 1% (US.CBU0)


The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield hovered at the 3% mark on Tuesday morning, while the 10-year German bund hit 1% for the first time since 2015, amid expectations around interest rate hikes. Meanwhile, growing expectations that the European Central Bank will also soon raise interest rates was reflected in movements in the German bond market. The 10-year German sovereign bund climbed 4 basis points on Tuesday morning, hitting 1% for the first time since 2015, according to Reuters data.


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April Extends Bond Investors’ Woes (US.CBU0)


The yield on the 10-year note, one of the most actively traded bonds in the world, settled Friday at 2.885%, up from 2.324% at the end of March. That marked its biggest monthly increase since December 2009 and followed an already historic rout in the first three months of the year, when bond indexes delivered their worst quarterly returns since the early 1980s.


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Gundlach – Inflation May Hit 10% (US.CBU0) (DE.IUS5)


On Tuesday, the day that government-reported inflation hit 8.5%, Jeffrey Gundlach said it may reach 10% this year. Gundlach was a keynote speaker at the Exchange ETF conference in Miami. He is the founder and chairman of Los Angeles-based DoubleLine Capital. “A year ago, inflation was thought to be transitory,” Gundlach said, “but the only thing transitory was the use of word ‘transitory.’” “Maybe we will see 10% inflation."

The world has become more reliant on Chinese goods since the pandemic started in 2020, which means the latest round of lockdowns have a greater impact on global growth and inflation, they said.


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Concerned about inflation? Here’s why stock investors should stay the course, says Ritholtz COO (US.CBU0)


Maggiulli said investing is an effective way to fight back against inflation. Indeed, he gave an example in his book of how investing can help offset inflation to preserve and grow wealth.&nbsp

For instance, from January 1926 to the end of 2020, $1 would have needed to grow to $15 to keep up with inflation. If you had invested $1 in long-term U.S. Treasury bonds in 1926, it would have grown to $200 (13 times greater than inflation) by the end of 2020.


concerned about inflation heres why stock investors should stay the course says ritholtz coo 2022

Treasury Yield Surge to Threaten Bull Run’s Last Resistance Line (US.CBU0)


Benchmark 10-year yields rose above 2.80% to the highest since December 2018 as traders bet the Federal Reserve will ramp up the pace of tightening to curb inflation. Strategists from JPMorgan Asset Management to MUFG Securities Americas say yields may climb past 3%.


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2-year Treasury yield tops 10-year rate, a ‘yield curve’ inversion that could signal a recession (US.CBU0)


The 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields inverted for the first time since 2019 on Thursday. When the curve inverts, “there has been a better than two-thirds chance of a recession at some point in the next year and a greater than 98% chance of a recession at some point in the next two years,” according to Bespoke.


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Inversion of key U.S. yield curve slice is a recession alarm (US.CBU0)


On Tuesday, the closely watched U.S. Treasury yield curve inverted for the first time since September 2019, reflecting concerns that the Federal Reserve could tip the economy into recession while tackling rising inflation. For a while, the yield on the 2-year government bond was higher than the yield on the benchmark 10-year bond. Many see this part of the curve as a reliable signal that a recession is likely in the next year or two. The 2-year and 10-year spread briefly fell to minus 0.03 basis points before recovering to above 0 to 5 basis points, according to Refinitiv data.


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Recession fears tied to Treasury yields are overblown, Canaccord’s Tony Dwyer suggests (US.CBU0)


While investors focus on an unnerving inversion between the five-year and 30-year Treasury Note yields, Canaccord Genuity’s Tony Dwyer is concentrating on optimistic activity in another part of the bond market. According to Dwyer, the three-month versus five-year yield shows a healthier picture of the U.S. economy because it steepened. “It measures the difference between what a banker lending institution gets its money at, what they have to pay, versus what they charge or invested at,” the firm’s chief market strategist told CNBC’s “Fast Money” on Monday. “We don’t look for a recession because of that yield curve that’s driving the lending is still very positive.”


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U.S. Treasury yield curve divergence sends mixed recession signals (US.CBU0)


Two measures of the U.S. Treasury yield curve that are widely watched for recession warnings have veered in opposite directions, raising questions as to what degree central bank bond buying and other technical factors may be distorting the signals on the economy's path. The spread between the yield on 3-month Treasury bills and 10-year notes this month has been widening, which can be an indicator of an economic expansion. On Friday, that curve reached its steepest in more than five years at 196 basis points.


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The bond market is flashing a warning sign a recession may be coming. Here’s why (DE.VUCE) (DE.DBX0) (US.CBU0)


An “inverted yield curve” in the bond market is a distortion that has often occurred before U.S. recessions. This happens when short-term bond yields exceed those of longer-term bonds. It means investors are worried about the economy’s long-term prospects. The two-year versus 10-year yield on a U.S. Treasury bond is generally the most watched by economists. That curve hasn’t yet inverted, but another part of the market did on Monday.


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Bonds Flash Growth Warning as Global Stocks Mixed: Markets Wrap (DE.IUS5) (DE.DBX0) (US.CBU0)


Sovereign bonds tumbled, while European stocks gained and U.S. equity futures fell on Monday as economic risks from inflation and tightening monetary policy hit sentiment.

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield climbed past 2.5%, above a technical trendline that’s served as a ceiling since the late 1980s. Bonds slid from Australia to the U.K., while Japan’s 10-year rate extended gains even after the country’s central bank announced two unlimited buying operations to keep yields below the top of its allowed range.


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Bond (US.CBU0) (DE.IUS5) Rout Widens as Quickening Inflation Adds to Rate-Hike Bets


Australia’s 10-year yields climbed as much as six basis points to 2.43%, the highest since March 2020, while similar-maturity New Zealand yields topped 3% for the first time since 2018. New Zealand food prices jumped at the fastest annual pace in over a decade, data published Friday showed, after U.S. figures released Thursday showed consumer prices surged at an annual rate of 7.9%.


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